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本周美联储大概率再次加息 明年可能放缓加息步伐

2018-12-18 15:14:20 栏目 : 基金 围观 : 次 评论

  本周,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将召开年内最后一次货币政策会议,届时美联储将公布年内的最后一个利率水果拉霸多人版决议。目前市场普遍认为,美联储将在此次货币会议上宣布再次加息。

  ERDUIYU2019NIANMEILIANCHUDEHUOBIZHENGCEZOUSHI,MUQIANSHICHANGKANFABUYI,YOUZHUANJIARENWEIMINGNIANKENENGHUIFANGHUANJIAXIBUFA。

水果拉霸多人版  BENZHOUJIAXISHIDAGAILVSHIJIAN

  当地时间12月18日至19日,美联储将举行12月份的议息会议。从近期公布的数据来看,目前美国经济依然处于较好复苏周期,经济基本面和就业通胀数据支撑美联储继续加息,因此市场普遍预计此次加息是大概率事件。今年以来,美联储已经3次加息,每次上调25个基点。9月份加息之后,联邦基金利率目标区间为2.00%至2.25%。若此次决定加息,将成为美联储年内的第四次加息,也是2015年12月美联储开启本轮加息周期以来的第九次加息。

  美国商务部数据显示,今年第三季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算增长3.5%。美联储此前预测,美国经济增速今年全年将达到3.1%,高于2017年的2.2%。数据显示,通胀水平仍在美联储设定的目标范围之内。11月CPI同比上升2.2%,与预期值持平,较前值2.5%下降0.3个百分点。此数值为美国2018年1月以来CPI的最低水平,增幅明显放缓。

水果拉霸多人版  LINGWAI,MEIGUOLAOGONGBU12YUE7RIGONGBUDESHUJUXIANSHI,MEIGUO11YUESHIYELVLIANXUDISANGEYUEWEICHIZAI3.7%,JIXUBAOCHI49NIANYILAIDEZUIDISHUIPING。YUCITONGSHI,MEIGUOGONGYECHANCHUYUELVYECHUXIANDAFUFANDAN,LUDEZENGZHANG0.6%,ER10YUEWEIXIAHUA0.2%。GONGYESHENGCHANBIAOSHENGZHUYAOSHISHOUGONGYONGSHIYESHENGCHANDETIZHEN。MEIGUO11YUEYICHANGHANLENGDETIANQITIZHENLEDANGDIDEQUNUANXUQIU。

水果拉霸多人版  FENXIRENSHIZHICHU,WUJIASHUIPINGHESHIYELVZHEILIANGXIANGGUANJIANSHUJU,JUNZHICHIMEILIANCHUBENZHOUSHANGDIAOLILV。

  MEILIANCHUQIANFUZHUXISITANLI·FEIXIER15RIYUCE,YOUYUMEILIANCHUGENGQINGXIANGYUZHANSHIDUIYUJINGJIFAZHANDEXINXIN,YINCIYUJIHUIZAI12YUEXUANBUJIAXI。TASHUO:“RUGUOMEILIANCHUBUJIAXI,NEIJIUXIANGSHICHANGCHUANDILEYIGEXINXI,JIJINGJIQIANJINGEHUADESUDUBICIQIANYULIAODEGENGKUAI。ZHEIKENENGHUIJIANGDIDUIJINGJIZENGZHANGDEYUQI,JINERDAOZHIMEIGUOHEQITAGUOJIADEJINGJIZENGZHANGLVXIAJIANG。”

  BUGUO,FEIXIERBIAOSHI,SHICHANGSHANGCUNZAIZHELINGYIZHONGXIANGFANDEGUANDIAN:JIXIANZAIBUYINGGAIJIAXI,YINWEIMUQIANKANBUCHUJINGJIZENGSUFANGHUANDECHENGDURUHE,BUYINGGAIJINYIBUDUIJINGJISHIJIAYALI,WEILEFANGZHIJINGJIXINGSHIBIANDEBIYUQIGENGZAOGAO,MEILIANCHUYINGGAIDENGDAOMINGNIANYIJIDUZAIZUOJUEDING。

  TELANGPU13RIJIESHOUMEITICAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,XIWANGMEILIANCHU“BUYAOZAIJIAXILE”,TELANGPUCIFANBIAOTAIYINQISHICHANGGUANGFANGUANZHU。CIQIAN,YINRENWEIJIAXIJIANGSHANGHAIMEIGUOJINGJI,TELANGPUYIDUOCIPENGJIMEILIANCHUJIAXIZHENGCE。JINGUANRUCI,ZHIJIAGESHANGPINJIAOYISUOJITUAN13RIDESHUJUXIANSHI,YOU80.1%DEGAILVMEILIANCHUBENZHOUJIANGJIAXI25GEJIDIANZHI2.25%ZHI2.50%DEQUJIAN。TONGSHI,ZHISHANGSUO“MEILIANCHUGUANCHA”GONGJUXIANSHI,SHICHANGYIJIBENXIAOHUALEBENZHOUJIAXIDEYUQI。

  MINGNIANJIAXIHUOJIANGFANGHUAN

  MEILIANCHUJINNIAN9YUEGONGBUDELILVYUQIDIANZHENTUXIANSHI,MEILIANCHUJIANGZAI2019NIANJIAXISANCI。RANER,SUIZHEQUANQIUJINGJI、MEIGUOJINGJIQIANJINGYOUSUORUOHUA,MUQIANSHICHANGPUBIANYUQIMEILIANCHU2019NIANHUIJIANSHAOJIAXICISHU。

  MEILIANCHUZHUXIBAOWEIERZAI11YUEDIANSHI,MINGNIANJIAXIBUFAKENENGBIMEILIANCHUGUANYUAN9YUEFENSHIYUCEDESANCIYAOMAN。BAOWEIERZAI11YUE28RIDEJIANGHUAZHONGCHENG:“ZHUBUJIAXIDAILAIDEJINGJIYINGXIANGBINGBUQUEDING,KENENGXUYAOYINIANHUOGENGZHANGSHIJIANCAINENGYOUCHONGFENRENSHI。”CIFANYANLUNYINFAWAIJIECHUAICEMEILIANCHUDEJIAXIZHOUQIHUOTIZAOZANTING。

  美银美林分析师表示:“市场目前主要关注未来预期层面,例如政策声明和美联储主席讲话的基调。至于未来前景,我们认为加息次数将会下调,预计2019年将仅加息两次,2020年则还将加息一次,最终利率将停留在3.00%-3.25%。我们同时相信,此次的政策声明中将会移除‘进一步渐进式加息’的论调,并强调对经济数据的考量。”

水果拉霸多人版  DIAOCHAXIANSHI,MEILIANCHUMINGNIANDEJIAXICISHUCONGZHIQIANYUQIDE3CIXIADIAOZHI2CI。CHAOGUOYIBANDEJINGJIXUEJIARENWEI,JINGJIZENGZHANGHETONGZHANGFANGMIANDEFENGXIANXIANZAIQINGXIANGYUXIAXING。ERZAIJINNIAN9YUEFEN,ZHIYOU16%DESHOUFANGZHECHIZHEIZHONGGUANDIAN。

  此外,一向对美国经济持乐观态度的高盛近日也下调了美联储明年的加息预期次数。高盛此前预计2019年美联储将加息四次,比美联储点阵图显示的三次还多。但在最新的研报水果拉霸多人版中,该投行预计美联储明年3月加息的概率已降至50%以下。

  GAOSHENGBIAOSHI,ZHISUOYIZUOCHUZHEIYANGDEYUCE,SHIYOUYUJINQIDEJINGJISHUJUYIJINGCONG“YICHANGQIANGJING”ZHUANBIANWEI“JINJINSHIQIANGJING”,BUGUOGAITOUXINGRENWEI,RENGYOUCHONGFENDELIYOUZHICHI3YUEFENJIAXI:“JISHIZAIJINRONGHUANJINGSHOUJINDEQINGKUANGXIA,DIYIJIDUDEJINGJIZENGZHANGYERENGYINGBAOCHIZAIQUSHIZHISHANG。ERZAI12YUEJIAXIZHIHOU,JIJINLILVYERENGCHUYUMEILIANCHUDEZHONGXINGLILVYUCEFANWEIDEZUIDIDUAN。”

  ZHONGGUOYINXINGGUOJIJINRONGYANJIUSUOYANJIUYUANWANGYOUXINRENWEI,YIXIEZHIYUEYINSUDAOZHILEMEILIANCHUJIAXIJIEZOUDEBUQUEDINGXING。SHOUXIANSHIWAIBUSHICHANGDEYICHUXIAOYING,MEILIANCHUJIAXIJIADALEXINXINGSHICHANGDEJINRONGDONGDANG,RUGUODONGDANGJIADAYEHUIYINGXIANGMEILIANCHUDEJIAXIJINCHENG;QICI,JIAXIGUOKUAIHUIJIAKUAIMEIGUHUIDIAODESUDU,JIANGCHONGJIMEIGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG,ZHEIFANGUOLAIHUIYINGXIANGMEILIANCHUJIAXIJIEZOU。MEIGUOJINGJIFUSUYIJINGJINRUHOUBANCHENG,SHICHANGPUBIANYUJIZAI2020NIANJINGJIFUSUJINCHENGJIESHU,JIESHIMEILIANCHUKENENGHUICONGJIAXIZHOUQIJINRUJIANGXIZHOUQI。

  JINGJIZENGSUZHENGZAIFANGHUAN

  美国11月除了零售数据外的其他数据并不都是一片大好。美联储14日公布的一系列工业产出数据显示,美国11月工业产出环比增长0.2%,低于预期,远低于10月的增长1.2%。同时公布的11月制造业产出环比增长0.2%,低于预期。14日公布的美国12月Markit制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)初值为53.9,低于预期的55.PMI超过50意味着行业在扩张增长,但比之前的增长速度有所下降。同时,12月7日公布的美国非农就业数据显示,美国11月份新增就业人数和工资涨幅双双弱于预期,就业市场略有降温趋势。

水果拉霸多人版  JINGJIXUEJIAMENZAIZUIXINFABUDEYANBAOZHONGFENFENYUCE,YOUYUCAIZHENG、HUOBIZHENGCEDUIJINGJIDECIJIXIAOGUOZHUJIANXIAOTUI,YIJIMAOYIZHENGCEDEFUMIANYINGXIANG,MINGNIANMEIGUOJINGJIZENGSUJIANGCHUXIANJIAODAFUDUDEFANGHUAN。

  NIUJINJINGJIYANJIUSUOSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIADAKEYUJI2018NIANMEIGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGJIANGDADAO2.9%,CHENGWEI2015NIANYILAIZUIKUAIDEZENGZHANG。DANSHIDAO2019NIANDISIJIDU,MEIGUOJINGJIZENGSUJIANGFANGHUANDAO2.2%。DIAOCHAXIANSHI,MUQIANYOU33%DEMEIGUORENMINYUJIMINGNIANMEIGUODEJINGJIHUIBIANDEGENGZAO,ZHEIYIBILIYEDADAO2013NIANYILAIDEZUIGAOSHUIPING。

延伸阅读>>>

  MEILIANCHUQIANFUZHUXISITANLI·FEIXIER:12YUEJIAXISHIMEILIANCHUDANGQIANZUIJIAJUECE

  MEILIANCHUJIAXIJIANSHANGXIAN YANGXINGGUANHAOLIUDONGXINGZHAMEN

  TELANGPUZAIPENMEILIANCHU:ZHEISHIHOUKAOLVJIAXILINGREN“NANYIZHIXIN”


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